Probability

In Short

This story follows the strange, cyclical friendship between Mike Murphy, a bartender, and Rabelais Pettis, a timid office worker. After decades of predictable routine, Pettis reveals that he has spent years building a machine capable of navigating the currents of time. What begins as a drunken celebration evolves into a high-stakes mission to alter history. By shifting between "time tracks," the two men attempt to avert a looming global catastrophe. It is a tightly focused piece of speculative fiction that explores the intersection of ordinary lives and grand, world-altering consequences.

The Story

For thirty-one years, Mike Murphy serves a daily beer to Rabelais Pettis, a diminutive, anxious man who lives a life of quiet anonymity. Their relationship is defined by this rigid, daily ritual until 1953, when Pettis arrives at the bar with an air of sudden, jarring confidence. He buys the bar, showers Mike with cash, and initiates a wild night of revelry. Pettis reveals the source of his wealth: a time machine hidden in his basement. The pair, accompanied by two young women they meet during their spree, use the device to jump into the future. They indulge in the luxury of 1956, secure in the knowledge that Mike is destined to become a successful politician.

However, the reality of this future proves to be a fragile construct. Mike awakens one morning to find his success has vanished, and he is back behind the bar in 1953. Pettis returns, appearing exactly as he did the first time, and reveals that their previous timeline ended in disaster. The future they visited was flawed, and Pettis has calculated a "different time track" to prevent a catastrophic nuclear event. He explains that the timeline where Mike served as mayor was insufficient; to save the world, Mike must bypass local office and secure a seat in Congress immediately.

Pettis operates under a strict set of rules regarding probability, fearing that erratic interference with the past will cause the timeline to unravel. He forbids travel into the deep past or the far future, where the threat of war looms. Instead, they focus on the "near future," where Pettis can manipulate financial markets to provide the resources necessary for their intervention. Mike, initially bewildered, eventually accepts his role as a pawn in this cosmic game. He abandons his apron, enters national politics, and successfully neutralizes the political figures whose future actions would have sparked an atomic war.

The story concludes with Mike serving as a national hero in the halls of Congress, yet he remains perpetually haunted by his lack of agency. Because Pettis refuses to let him view the future history books, Mike is never entirely certain he is doing the right thing or if he is simply following a script. He exists in a state of suspended uncertainty, tethered to an inventor who treats history as a malleable equation, leaving Mike to wonder if he is truly a savior or merely a repeating character in a loop of Pettis’s design.

How It Unfolds

The daily ritual Mike and Pettis establish a rhythm of interaction over three decades, marked by daily beers and minimal conversation. This period of stagnation highlights their shared sense of being "small" men trapped in the margins of their own lives.

The sudden shift The arrival of a transformed, bold Pettis shatters the established status quo of the tavern. His erratic behavior and seemingly bottomless pockets signal that the mundane world has been permanently superseded by his secret invention.

The time travel debut Pettis leads Mike and two acquaintances into the future, demonstrating the machine's ability to pull them into a world of luxury and influence. This sequence serves as a proof of concept, turning a skeptical bartender into a believer in the reality of the machine.

The reset Mike experiences a rude awakening when his success dissolves into a dream, returning him to the moment before his life changed. This beat introduces the conflict of the "time track," forcing the characters to acknowledge that their first attempt at intervention failed.

The final trajectory Pettis provides new instructions that align Mike with a path of greater political influence. By skipping the mayoralty, Mike is positioned to stop the specific "lunkheads" in Congress who would otherwise trigger a global catastrophe.

The burden of uncertainty The narrative concludes with Mike grappling with his role as a silent hero. He is successful in his mission but remains trapped in a state of doubt, unable to confirm his accomplishments through the lens of the future he helped create.

The People

Mike Murphy is a man of limited ambitions who finds himself thrust into a role of global importance. He begins as a passive observer of life, content to serve beer and share in the occasional excitement of others. Throughout the story, his primary obstacle is his own confusion and lack of understanding regarding the mechanics of time. He ultimately evolves from a lowly bartender into a national statesman, though he retains a lingering, uncomfortable sense of being a puppet to Pettis’s designs.

Rabelais Pettis is the architect of the story’s reality. Initially appearing as a timid, browbeaten draftsman, he is revealed to be a brilliant, calculating inventor. He wants to secure a peaceful future, but his methods are cold and detached, characterized by a willingness to manipulate others—including his own wife—to achieve his ends. He is the master of the "time track," possessing the knowledge of what must happen to avoid disaster. He remains a mysterious, solitary figure, never fully sharing the burden of his inventions with those he recruits, preferring to maintain total control over the probability of the world’s survival.

In Its Own Voice

"If you ever get to drinking beer in your favorite saloon and meet a scared little guy who wants to buy you the joint, supply you with fur coats and dolls and run you for Congress--listen well!" The narrator warns the reader about the strange, life-altering nature of an encounter with Pettis.

"I don't get the idea but it doesn't seem to matter much. We're having too good a time kicking around in the near future." Mike expresses his initial willingness to ignore the complex, dangerous implications of time travel in favor of immediate gratification.

"And you," he goes on, "are the one who stops them before they get started." Pettis reveals the weight of the moral responsibility he has placed squarely on the shoulders of the bartender.

What It's Really About

The central theme is the tension between human agency and the overwhelming, abstract forces of "probability." The book argues that history is not a fixed monument but a fragile, plastic thing that can be reshaped by those with the foresight—or the technology—to intervene. Beneath the sci-fi premise lies a deeper, more cynical question: if our lives are being steered by someone else’s calculations for the "greater good," can we truly claim to be the authors of our own successes? It touches on the isolation of the visionary, as Pettis remains fundamentally alone, unable to share the true weight of his burden with the person he has chosen to elevate.

Why Read It Today

Readers who enjoy the brisk, no-nonsense style of mid-century pulp science fiction will find this a rewarding experience. It does not waste time on dense exposition or complex world-building; instead, it relies on the voice of a working-class narrator to ground its extraordinary claims. The pace is rapid, moving from the quiet, smoky atmosphere of a 1950s tavern to the high-stakes political intrigue of a manufactured future.

You should be aware that the story reflects the mid-century period in which it was written; the dialogue and the casual treatment of the women characters are unmistakably products of 1954, which may strike modern readers as dated or dismissive. The prose is utilitarian and straightforward, mirroring the bartender’s own perspective. What stays with you is the haunting finality of the ending—a sense that while the world may have been saved, the cost was the total surrender of the protagonist’s free will. If you appreciate a story that balances a "what if" scenario with a deeply human sense of bewilderment, this brief, punchy narrative will linger in your mind long after the final page.