The Future of Islam

In Short

Written during the geopolitical upheavals of 1881, The Future of Islam presents an analytical evaluation of the global Muslim population, the decline of the Ottoman Empire, and the potential for a spiritual renaissance. Scawen Blunt examines demographic data from the Mecca pilgrimage, dissects the historical origins of the Caliphate, and details the core differences between Sunite and Shiite traditions. He argues that true reform cannot be imposed by European violence or Westernized legal changes, but must arise naturally from within Arab intellectual centers. The book endures as a rare contemporary Western critique of imperial overreach.

The Story

The argument begins with an urgent warning to the British public and empire. Spurred by the French invasion of Tunis and political unrest across North Africa and Egypt, the treatise insists that European nations—especially Britain, with its millions of Indian Muslim subjects—can no longer ignore the internal dynamics of the Islamic world. To ground his analysis in concrete reality rather than vague assumptions, the author establishes a comprehensive statistical breakdown of the 1880 Mecca pilgrimage, estimating the total global census of Islam at 175 million across distinct regional and sectarian groupings.

From this demographic foundation, the text traces the historical evolution of Islamic governance. It outlines the early Caliphate of the Koreysh tribe, the Umayyad era in Damascus, the five-century reign of the Abbasids in Baghdad, and the ultimate destruction of Arab temporal sovereignty by the Mongols. The focus then shifts to Sultan Selim’s 16th-century assumption of the Caliphate for the Ottoman Empire. The narrative characterizes this move as a political necessity that nevertheless separated the spiritual leadership of Islam from its original Arabian lineage. The modern Ottoman rule under Abd el Hamid is presented as fragile, relying on the nominal prestige of the Caliphate rather than genuine spiritual authority or ethnic respect from non-Turkish Muslims.

The core progression of the work centers on the necessity and inevitability of a Mohammedan reformation. The text asserts that forced Europeanization and top-down imperial decrees have failed because they carry the vice of illegality under sacred law. Instead, true intellectual and moral revitalization is already taking root in centers like Cairo, where scholars assimilate modern ethical principles into traditional jurisprudence. Furthermore, the text anticipates a widespread religious awakening led by figures such as the expected Mahdi in Africa, alongside a movement to restore the Caliphate to the sacred Arab lineage of the Sherifs of Mecca.

In its final movement, the work addresses Britain’s strategic and moral imperatives. It cautions against relying on military force or allowing hostile powers like Russia to dictate the fate of the region. The author demonstrates how key policy goals—such as suppressing the East African slave trade and maintaining regional stability—require direct, respectful cooperation with Muslim authorities. The book concludes with a call for Britain to act as a supportive ally to a self-governing, reformed Islamic world, predicting that while temporal empires may fall, a purified spiritual community will outlast colonial interference.

How It Unfolds

The gathering at Mecca The investigation begins with a detailed census of the 1880 pilgrimage to Mecca, using the gathering of over 90,000 pilgrims as a bird's-eye view to categorize the world's 175 million Muslims by region, population, and sect.

The shift of the Caliphate The narrative charts the historical transfer of authority from the early Koreysh successors and the Abbasid dynasty of Baghdad down to the Ottoman Sultan Selim, who claimed spiritual headship despite lacking Arab lineage.

Crises of Ottoman legitimacy The text examines the modern decline of Constantinople's authority, showing how top-down secularizing reforms alienated the pious, while Sultan Abd el Hamid attempted to shore up his fragile reign by exaggerating his spiritual title.

The promise of the Sherifs The focus moves to Hejaz, contrasting the unpopularity of Turkish rule with the deep religious prestige of the Grand Sherifs of Mecca, whose direct descent from the Prophet makes them natural leaders for a restored Arabian Caliphate.

Emergence of internal reform The argument demonstrates that intellectual renewal is already underway in Cairo and among Arabian scholars, while predicting that popular reform movements and figures like the Mahdi will rise to purge corruption.

An imperial policy for Britain The book concludes by outlining Britain's strategic interest in supporting an independent Arab Caliphate, arguing that genuine cooperation is the only path to stopping the slave trade and ensuring long-term peace.

The People

• Sultan Selim I: The 16th-century Ottoman emperor who conquered Egypt and assumed the title of Caliph. He sought to unite temporal dominance with spiritual leadership, creating a precedent of non-Arab Caliphs that survived into the 19th century.
• Sultan Abd el Hamid: The Ottoman ruler at the time of writing. He seeks to maintain control over a fracturing empire by aggressively promoting his status as spiritual Caliph, though his lack of Koreysh ancestry and reliance on palace politics limit his genuine authority among the faithful.
• The Grand Sherifs of Mecca: The line of rulers descended directly from the Koreysh tribe of Mohammed. They hold deep traditional and religious prestige among pilgrims, standing as the primary alternative to Ottoman spiritual leadership.
• The Mahdi: The expected spiritual guide in Islamic tradition. In the text's analysis, this figure represents the active expectation of a leader who will arise during times of decay to restore justice, purge legal corruptions, and head popular reform movements across North Africa and the East.

In Its Own Voice

"To shut their eyes to the great facts of contemporary history, because that history has no immediate connection with their daily life, is a course unworthy of a great nation; and in England, where the opinion of the people guides the conduct of affairs, can hardly fail to bring disaster."

This opening note warns British readers against isolationism, insisting that an empire governing millions of Muslim subjects must understand the religious forces shaping the region.

"Islam, if she relies only on the sword, must in the end perish by it, for her forces, vast as they are, are without physical cohesion, being scattered widely over the surface of three continents..."

Here the text emphasizes that the survival of the Islamic world depends not on military resistance, but on meeting intellectual and moral invasions with internal renewal.

"Therefore, in God's name, let her take Islam by the hand and encourage her boldly in the path of virtue. This is the only worthy course, and the only wise one..."

The concluding chapter summarizes the book's policy thesis, urging Britain to abandon crusading attitudes and support self-determination.

What It's Really About

At its heart, the book is an argument against the assumption that European military dominance equals cultural or moral superiority. It explores the tension between external imperial pressure and internal religious continuity, arguing that political empires are fleeting while spiritual communities adapt and endure. The text wrestles with the problem of political legitimacy, contrasting the artificial authority of military conquerors with the organic authority rooted in shared lineage, local learning, and traditional law. Ultimately, it asks whether a Western empire can learn to act as a respectful partner to foreign civilizations rather than an occupying force, insisting that long-term stability requires honoring the intellectual independence of the governed.

Why Read It Today

This volume offers a remarkable historical snapshot of late 19th-century geopolitics written from a perspective strikingly sympathetic to Eastern self-determination. Readers interested in diplomatic history, religious studies, and the origins of modern Middle Eastern statehood will find its observations surprisingly prescient. Blunt writes with a clear, measured cadence, relying on structured tables and historical timelines rather than dense academic jargon.

The work does reflect its era's analytical habits—races and regional populations are broadly categorized, and the author frequently evaluates whole cultures in sweeping terms. Modern readers will also notice the dated 19th-century transliterations of Arabic terms and place names. However, the author's willingness to critique his own country's imperial blind spots gives the prose a refreshing candor. What remains compelling is the book's defense of internal reform over external coercion, presenting a thoughtful historical argument that still resonates when considering international relations today.