What is Coming? A Forecast of Things after the War

In Short

This volume is a collection of analytical essays examining how the First World War is transforming human civilization, written while the conflict still rages. Drawing on a framework of social forecasting, it maps out the inevitable bankruptcy of warring states, the collapse of archaic political and educational structures, the rise of emancipated women, and the end of European imperialism. It has endured as an extraordinary historical artifact, offering a vivid, real-time look at a major intellectual attempting to design a post-war international order while the outcome remains completely uncertain.

The Story

The argument begins with an defense of forecasting as a natural extension of the scientific method. Society, driven by technological advancement and total war, is moving toward higher levels of organization despite itself. The unprecedented destruction of human happiness and economic wealth makes the total avoidance of future wars a matter of universal self-preservation. Because total war causes automatic national bankruptcy through inflation and the devaluation of currency, it levels social distinctions and scales down the power of the traditional rentier and landlord classes.

As millions of soldiers return home, hardened by hardship and disillusioned by the incompetence of their rulers, they will refuse to return to old political games. This creates a choice for every nation: either a catastrophic breakdown into prolonged discord or a deliberate reconstruction of society along more rational lines. Internal progress is hampered by arbitrary boundaries, both municipal and national, which act like barbed-wire entanglements against genuine peace.

To achieve a functioning post-war world, nations must overhaul their internal institutions. In Great Britain, the legal profession and the partisan press hold an unhealthy monopoly on power, starving scientific and technical fields of talent. Meanwhile, the war has accelerated a profound social revolution by releasing the energy of women, permanently shifting them from domestic isolation into active, independent public roles.

Looking outward, international borders must be redrawn along natural and defensive lines, with traditional imperial arrangements giving way to self-determination. The concept of "empire" itself is rapidly becoming obsolete; populations in places like India cannot and should not be expected to accept foreign rule indefinitely. Furthermore, the German state, sustained on dwindling promises of victory, faces an inevitable internal reckoning as its populace realizes the futility of its sacrifices. Ultimately, true global peace will not emerge from sentimental forgiveness or immediate reconciliation, but from a long, disciplined period of containment, structural reorganization, and the gradual dying off of the generation that bore the war's deepest wounds.

How It Unfolds

The science of prediction The author establishes that forecasting is not mere fortune-telling, but an essential scientific habit based on analyzing existing trends to see what is already forming beneath the surface.

The mechanism of exhaustion War is shown to be an engine of automatic national bankruptcy that steadily erodes fixed wealth, alters economic realities, and forces nations toward collective state management out of sheer necessity.

The returning soldier Millions of men returning from the frontlines bring a critical, uncompromising mindset back into civil life, sweeping away archaic class privileges and demand real administrative competence.

The legal obstruction An examination of British governance reveals how an over-reliance on lawyers and parliamentary debaters stifles scientific innovation and delays essential administrative reforms.

The rise of freewomen The narrative turns to the home front, showing how technological labor-saving devices and war work have liberated feminine energy, establishing a permanent new class of independent, self-reliant women.

Redrawing the global map The focus expands globally to argue that European frontiers must be fortified defensively, while old-style colonial empires in Asia and Africa must transition toward genuine self-governance.

The cold path to peace The book concludes by acknowledging that immediate emotional reconciliation between combatants is impossible, requiring instead decades of patient, unsentimental work to build a stable world state.

The People

The Prophetic Mind The central intellectual force of the book wants to apply scientific rigor to human affairs to prevent perpetual conflict. Standing against short-sighted militarists and traditionalist politicians, this voice envisions a rationally organized world state built on shared human necessity.

The New Soldier Representing the vast mass of returning servicemen, this collective figure wants an honest, efficiently run society free from the old political "mystery dance." Having endured the brutal realities of the trenches, this group stands as a barrier against landlords, investors, and incompetent officials who hope to resume pre-war exploitation.

The New Freewoman Emerging from the collapse of traditional domestic isolation, this figure seeks professional independence, social mobility, and serious participation in public life. Moving past both quiet obscurity and militant theatricality, she imposes her own dignity and capability on a changing society.

The Imperialist and the Lawyer These traditional authority figures want to maintain their historic privileges, high government salaries, and legal monopolies. Stumbling against the demands of a modernized world, their dilatory and uninventive methods are shown to be increasingly obsolete.

In Its Own Voice

"Science is very largely analysis aimed at forecasting. The test of any scientific law is our verification of its anticipations."

This foundational premise introduces the author's belief that human history and political movements can be analyzed with the same predictive accuracy as physical sciences.

"There will be no end until these profit-makings are arrested. The necessary 'conscriptions of property' must come about in Great Britain because there is no alternative but failure in the war, and the British people will not stand failure."

Here the text illustrates how the absolute pressure of existential conflict forces even conservative societies to adopt state socialism and dismantle private monopolies.

"The living intercourse of the British and Indian mind to-day is the discussion of the restoration. Everything else is humbug on the one side and self-deception on the other."

This direct assertion cuts through contemporary imperial rhetoric to argue that genuine international relationships can only exist on the premise of returning self-rule to colonized peoples.

What It's Really About

Beneath its immediate commentary on trench warfare and troop movements, the book is an extended argument for the deliberate planning of human civilization. It contends that the modern nation-state, operating on unregulated individualism and competitive militarism, has reached a destructive dead end. The text explores how technology and industrialization have made war too ruinous to remain an instrument of national policy. It asserts that true national security requires the surrender of traditional sovereignty in favor of a unified world direction. The underlying question is whether human intelligence can consciously organize a peaceful global order, or if society must repeatedly collapse into conflict through a lack of collective imagination and courage.

Why Read It Today

This work offers an extraordinary window into the intellectual climate of the First World War, capturing the precise moment when the modern world was being forged out of nineteenth-century institutions. Readers fascinated by political history, social forecasting, and the origins of international organizations like the League of Nations will find it deeply compelling. The prose is sharp, confident, and characteristically lucid, moving effortlessly from hyper-local municipal boundaries to sweeping geopolitical shifts.

The reader must, however, navigate certain period attitudes. The text contains archaic racial terminology and paternalistic frameworks typical of early twentieth-century British thought, even as it actively argues against the continuation of European empire. Modern readers will also notice the author's overconfidence in scientific planning as a cure-all for complex human rivalries. Yet, these limitations themselves are instructive. What stays with you is the striking accuracy of many specific predictions—from the inevitability of national bankruptcy and the total emancipation of women to the eventual collapse of colonial empires—proving the remarkable power of a sharp mind applying analysis to its own troubled present.

<ElicitationsGroup message="What would you like to do next?"> <Elicitation label="Summarize another non-fiction work by H.G. Wells" query="Summarize another non-fiction work by H.G. Wells" query_intent="CLICKABLE_SUGGESTION" /> <Elicitation label="Compare Wells's predictions with post-WWI reality" query="Compare Wells's predictions with post-WWI reality" query_intent="CLICKABLE_SUGGESTION" /> </ElicitationsGroup> A mind trained in the habits of scientific analysis looks past the immediate chaos of global conflict to discern the structural shifts rebuilding tomorrow's society.

In Short

This volume is a collection of analytical essays examining how the First World War is transforming human civilization, written while the conflict still rages. Drawing on a framework of social forecasting, it maps out the inevitable bankruptcy of warring states, the collapse of archaic political and educational structures, the rise of emancipated women, and the end of European imperialism. It has endured as an extraordinary historical artifact, offering a vivid, real-time look at a major intellectual attempting to design a post-war international order while the outcome remains completely uncertain.

The Story

The argument begins with an defense of forecasting as a natural extension of the scientific method. Society, driven by technological advancement and total war, is moving toward higher levels of organization despite itself. The unprecedented destruction of human happiness and economic wealth makes the total avoidance of future wars a matter of universal self-preservation. Because total war causes automatic national bankruptcy through inflation and the devaluation of currency, it levels social distinctions and scales down the power of the traditional rentier and landlord classes.

As millions of soldiers return home, hardened by hardship and disillusioned by the incompetence of their rulers, they will refuse to return to old political games. This creates a choice for every nation: either a catastrophic breakdown into prolonged discord or a deliberate reconstruction of society along more rational lines. Internal progress is hampered by arbitrary boundaries, both municipal and national, which act like barbed-wire entanglements against genuine peace.

To achieve a functioning post-war world, nations must overhaul their internal institutions. In Great Britain, the legal profession and the partisan press hold an unhealthy monopoly on power, starving scientific and technical fields of talent. Meanwhile, the war has accelerated a profound social revolution by releasing the energy of women, permanently shifting them from domestic isolation into active, independent public roles.

Looking outward, international borders must be redrawn along natural and defensive lines, with traditional imperial arrangements giving way to self-determination. The concept of "empire" itself is rapidly becoming obsolete; populations in places like India cannot and should not be expected to accept foreign rule indefinitely. Furthermore, the German state, sustained on dwindling promises of victory, faces an inevitable internal reckoning as its populace realizes the futility of its sacrifices. Ultimately, true global peace will not emerge from sentimental forgiveness or immediate reconciliation, but from a long, disciplined period of containment, structural reorganization, and the gradual dying off of the generation that bore the war's deepest wounds.

How It Unfolds

The science of prediction The author establishes that forecasting is not mere fortune-telling, but an essential scientific habit based on analyzing existing trends to see what is already forming beneath the surface.

The mechanism of exhaustion War is shown to be an engine of automatic national bankruptcy that steadily erodes fixed wealth, alters economic realities, and forces nations toward collective state management out of sheer necessity.

The returning soldier Millions of men returning from the frontlines bring a critical, uncompromising mindset back into civil life, sweeping away archaic class privileges and demand real administrative competence.

The legal obstruction An examination of British governance reveals how an over-reliance on lawyers and parliamentary debaters stifles scientific innovation and delays essential administrative reforms.

The rise of freewomen The narrative turns to the home front, showing how technological labor-saving devices and war work have liberated feminine energy, establishing a permanent new class of independent, self-reliant women.

Redrawing the global map The focus expands globally to argue that European frontiers must be fortified defensively, while old-style colonial empires in Asia and Africa must transition toward genuine self-governance.

The cold path to peace The book concludes by acknowledging that immediate emotional reconciliation between combatants is impossible, requiring instead decades of patient, unsentimental work to build a stable world state.

The People

The Prophetic Mind The central intellectual force of the book wants to apply scientific rigor to human affairs to prevent perpetual conflict. Standing against short-sighted militarists and traditionalist politicians, this voice envisions a rationally organized world state built on shared human necessity.

The New Soldier Representing the vast mass of returning servicemen, this collective figure wants an honest, efficiently run society free from the old political "mystery dance." Having endured the brutal realities of the trenches, this group stands as a barrier against landlords, investors, and incompetent officials who hope to resume pre-war exploitation.

The New Freewoman Emerging from the collapse of traditional domestic isolation, this figure seeks professional independence, social mobility, and serious participation in public life. Moving past both quiet obscurity and militant theatricality, she imposes her own dignity and capability on a changing society.

The Imperialist and the Lawyer These traditional authority figures want to maintain their historic privileges, high government salaries, and legal monopolies. Stumbling against the demands of a modernized world, their dilatory and uninventive methods are shown to be increasingly obsolete.

In Its Own Voice

"Science is very largely analysis aimed at forecasting. The test of any scientific law is our verification of its anticipations."

This foundational premise introduces the author's belief that human history and political movements can be analyzed with the same predictive accuracy as physical sciences.

"There will be no end until these profit-makings are arrested. The necessary 'conscriptions of property' must come about in Great Britain because there is no alternative but failure in the war, and the British people will not stand failure."

Here the text illustrates how the absolute pressure of existential conflict forces even conservative societies to adopt state socialism and dismantle private monopolies.

"The living intercourse of the British and Indian mind to-day is the discussion of the restoration. Everything else is humbug on the one side and self-deception on the other."

This direct assertion cuts through contemporary imperial rhetoric to argue that genuine international relationships can only exist on the premise of returning self-rule to colonized peoples.

What It's Really About

Beneath its immediate commentary on trench warfare and troop movements, the book is an extended argument for the deliberate planning of human civilization. It contends that the modern nation-state, operating on unregulated individualism and competitive militarism, has reached a destructive dead end. The text explores how technology and industrialization have made war too ruinous to remain an instrument of national policy. It asserts that true national security requires the surrender of traditional sovereignty in favor of a unified world direction. The underlying question is whether human intelligence can consciously organize a peaceful global order, or if society must repeatedly collapse into conflict through a lack of collective imagination and courage.

Why Read It Today

This work offers an extraordinary window into the intellectual climate of the First World War, capturing the precise moment when the modern world was being forged out of nineteenth-century institutions. Readers fascinated by political history, social forecasting, and the origins of international organizations like the League of Nations will find it deeply compelling. The prose is sharp, confident, and characteristically lucid, moving effortlessly from hyper-local municipal boundaries to sweeping geopolitical shifts.

The reader must, however, navigate certain period attitudes. The text contains archaic racial terminology and paternalistic frameworks typical of early twentieth-century British thought, even as it actively argues against the continuation of European empire. Modern readers will also notice the author's overconfidence in scientific planning as a cure-all for complex human rivalries. Yet, these limitations themselves are instructive. What stays with you is the striking accuracy of many specific predictions—from the inevitability of national bankruptcy and the total emancipation of women to the eventual collapse of colonial empires—proving the remarkable power of a sharp mind applying analysis to its own troubled present.

<ElicitationsGroup message="What would you like to do next?"> <Elicitation label="Summarize another non-fiction work by H.G. Wells" query="Summarize another non-fiction work by H.G. Wells" query_intent="CLICKABLE_SUGGESTION" /> <Elicitation label="Compare Wells's predictions with post-WWI reality" query="Compare Wells's predictions with post-WWI reality" query_intent="CLICKABLE_SUGGESTION" /> <Elicitation label="Analyze the literary style of H.G. Wells's essays" query="Analyze the literary style of H.G. Wells's essays" query_intent="CLICKABLE_SUGGESTION" /> </ElicitationsGroup>